Bums, No More- At the All Star Break, The State of The Dodgers is (Still) Great…But How About Baseball Itself?

bellingerThese days, I live more than 50 times closer to where Ebbetts Field used to be, than to the current home of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Fortunately, thanks to all this newfangled technology, I can keep track of how things have been going for the Boys in Blue.  And honestly, it doesn’t even take that much attention to realize that things have been going quite well for them, an almost unheard of 3-game losing streak going into the All-Star Break notwithstanding.  Corey Seager, thought of to be the next face of the franchise not long ago, has been injured most of the past two seasons, yet barely been missed.  Clayton Kershaw, the greatest regular season pitcher in at least a generation, is not quite what he used to be, which is actually fine.  Still a very good pitcher, Kershaw is somehow probably the Dodgers’ current number THREE starter.  ALL the starters have actually been very good, at least when healthy.  In a year with a ridiculous amount of offense, thanks to a tightly wound ball that has turned baseball into a de-facto homerun derby (more on that in a bit), all five starting pitchers in the Dodgers rotation have an era under 4.00.  And speaking of de-facto homerun derby, how about that Cody Bellinger?  And Max Muncy?  And Joc Pederson?  The “worst” hitter with at least 200 at-bats, Kike Hernandez, still has a slugging percentage over .400.  Even going into the All-Star game in a bit of a slump, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and EASILY the best record in the National League.  The Boston Red Sox might be the reigning champions, but the Dodgers are currently the team to beat.

I guess what I’m saying is that this team is quite good, and even the surliest members of the fanbase- you know who you are- have been in a good mood.  Oh, and Vin Scully’s successor, Joe Davis, has been receiving nearly universal praise, when you just KNOW people were looking for an excuse to pounce on whomever replaced the man they renamed Dodger Stadium’s address after!  So for now, all is well in Dodgerland.

Now, About MLB In General…

For years, perhaps decades, there have been a contingency of doomsayers to tell us that “baseball is dying”.  Throughout my lifetime, there’s just something about the sport that has brought out the grumpy old man in many of us, thinking back to “our” era, and lamenting that it just ain’t what it used to be- too much offense, or increasingly overpaid underperformers, or not enough offense, or soulless ballparks (in the Astroturf era), and on and on it went.  But overall, baseball was still considered “America’s Pastime”.  Then, in 1994, something truly shifted, and not for the better.  Bud Selig managed to do what World War II could not, cancelling the remainder of the season, including the World Series.  Fans became very cynical, but contrary to popular opinion, were at least coming back gradually.  Then, we had the 1998 home run race between McGwire and Sosa, heralded as some sort of cultural turn of the tide for the ol’ ballgame.  Once THAT turned out to be “fake”, fans became even more cynical, capped off by Barry Bonds shattering of what many consider the TRUE home run record overall.  And quite honestly, baseball’s reputation hasn’t recovered since.

If someone were to pay me (anyone?  ANYONE??), I could literally write a book about all of this, and how much of it- both the good AND bad- was largely based on myth.  But there comes a point where the myth is so strong it eventually becomes reality.  So here we are in 2019, dealing with most of the same problems that have plagued this game for a generation, and in some ways have multiplied.

As this post is being typed at the end of July 4th weekend in 2019, the stories that dominated the sports news were the US Women’s soccer team, the NBA summer league, and a 15 year old tennis phenom named Coco Gauff.  To the extent that baseball has been mentioned on sports television, outside of the officially designated baseball shows, it’s usually to talk, ironically, about how little talk there is about baseball.  One talking head show on ESPN- I kid you not- debated whether baseball games should end as a tie at a certain point in extra innings, because it was just too boring to watch for that long.  The word “debate” is used loosely here, as everyone on the panel agreed.  Imagine one of these paid yappers on ESPN saying that about the NBA, the NFL, or even soccer- they’d be suspended, if not fired!  (Oh, wait.  Soccer does end in ties.  My mistake, but I digress.)  And I’ve lost track of the number of times that 50-something year old radio hosts mention how young people don’t like baseball anymore, adding without a hint of self-awareness, that THEY stopped watching baseball.  It sounds less like they’re lamenting it, and more like they’re kicking dirt on it, like Earl Weaver used to do at umpires.

So what gives, and what can change this trend?  For one thing, a problem can only be solved if those who have it acknowledge its existence.  Bud Selig had his head…in the sand, yeah, let’s go with that…and his successor, Rob Manfred, doesn’t seem to be much better.  Okay, fine, so baseball doesn’t get the headlines it once did.  It sure doesn’t help that teams actually had the day off on JULY FREAKING FOURTH- a holiday that nearly everyone’s looking to have a beer and a hot dog.

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Seriously- what the hell is up with THIS?!

And how about those Expos…err, I mean Washington Nationals, wearing the old uniform of the beloved franchise taken out of Montreal, by Selig’s old pal Jeffrey Loria?  They even invited Vlad Guerrero to the festivities.  This would be like the NBA having “Supersonics” night in Oklahoma City, and inviting Shawn Kemp!  I’m not exactly sure what it was supposed to accomplish, other than to possibly taunt Canadians on the United States’ Independence Day.

Anyway, all these are examples of just how poor the marketing is in baseball.  Somehow, we’re supposed to believe that soccer, a game first played when the Neanderthals faced off against the Velociraptors (literal Velociraptors!), is gaining popularity because these cool young kids enjoy fast action…unlike us Gen-Xers, who apparently reveled in watching paint dry when we were kids.  I remember the 1980’s, and nothing could be further from the truth.  Soccer just got its act together, marketed its sport to the American masses, and is probably creating young superstars as this is being typed, while more and more little league fields get paved over.

It’s not all about image, though.  There IS truth that the sport currently has less action now, thanks to the advocacy of “true outcome” baseball- which is to say emphasis on homers, strikeouts, and walks.  Making contact and running the bases aggressively have gone out of style, and with the “perfection” of pitching, it really is harder for batters to make contact than it was in the days where 95 mph fastballs were considered impressive.  Little of this can be blamed on Manfred and Selig, as the evolution of the game took on a life of its own.  And to his credit, Manfred will be adding a rule to limit relief pitching changes starting next year, which should be a relief to fans, as well as participants looking to speed up the game a bit.  But there’s a lot more work that needs to be done.  And while there’s far less illegal use of steroids and PEDs, it’s been hard to tell this year, with the happy fun ball currently being used in regulation this season, making situational hitting more of a novelty than a 400+ foot home run.

Look, I enjoy home runs as much as anyone, but seeing games that look more like batting practice just cheapens them.  Surely this is to make up for the fact that hitters are striking out more than they are getting hits, but more homers don’t solve that problem.  There are exceptions, though, such as DJ LeMahieu and Jeff McNeil, who are bucking the all-or-nothing trend, and putting up MVP type seasons while doing it.  (Justin Turner, as always, is also having a very nice season with this approach.)  This isn’t to say that what they are doing is EASY- far from it.  It just demonstrates that there’s still a place for these type of hitters- if anything, now more than ever.

Last but not least, is the marketing of stars, or lack thereof.  For years, those who have ignored baseball’s decreasing relevancy in our popular culture have cited players’ ever increasing (as well as increasingly obscene) salaries, to demonstrate the “health” of baseball.  Technically, this is true- looking at Fortune’s 100 highest paid athletes, and baseball is well represented with 15 active players- 3rd most behind the NBA and NFL.  But in terms of endorsements, the amount of money baseball players receive, relative to the other major sports, is laughable.  Of all the sports with at least five athletes on the list, here’s the percentage received from endorsements, relative to total income-

Tennis – 81.4%

Golf – 75%

Basketball – 24.8%

Soccer – 24.7%

Football – 9%

Boxing – 7.4%

Baseball – 3.9%

In terms of market appeal, this low number has to be alarming for MLB.  On top of that, half of the money from endorsements comes from just two of the fifteen players- Bryce Harper, and to a lesser extent (believe it or not), Mike Trout.  Harper, who had the biggest chance at being “the face of baseball” with his larger-than-life personality, didn’t even perform well enough with the fans to be on the FINAL BALLOT for All Star voting, let alone IN the All-Star game itself!

Oh, and one other thing about the All Star game- why does baseball have so many players represented in the game to begin with?  It’s supposed to be about marketing stars, not making sure everyone who had a good first half gets an affirmation.  It’s hard to highlight the greatness of a few, when the roster looks more suited for a college football game.

On The Bright Side…

With this massive laundry list of issues- my apologies for the length, it’s been years in the making- baseball is still a great game to watch, to go to, and to appreciate.  And the sport does have some young stars to look forward to.  Mike Trout is certainly the greatest player now, but Cody Bellinger absolutely has a chance to give him a run for his money- and, as we’ve noted, he’s got a lot of it- with a better arm, on a better team, in a bigger market.  We have some time before that happens, but with a possible Dodgers vs. Yankees October matchup, Major League Baseball might soon have more going for it than I’m currently giving it credit for.

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Now THIS Is A Bargain!

Mike Trout was praised for signing the biggest individual contract in North American team history, for handling it “with class” and giving the Angels a “club friendly deal”. By those same standards, Ronald Acuna Jr. should be thrown a parade and have a building named after him.  $100 million for 21 year old with tons of upside, and a club option to keep him around until he’s 31 years old?  THIS, my fellow baseball fans, is TRULY a club friendly deal.

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Photo: Mike Zarrilli (Getty)

No disrespect intended for Mike Trout, who by all accounts IS a classy guy, and likely the best player in baseball right now.  He’s also going to very likely be in decline for at least half of his contract, which is far, FAR more expensive than Acuna’s.  Trout, who is more than six years older than Acuna- or, in baseball terms, roughly half a career older- is already in his prime years.  Acuna hasn’t even started his.  And, even if the 2018 Rookie of the Year doesn’t pan out the way it appears he will, $100 million over eight years, incredibly, isn’t that much money in Major League Baseball terms.  The Braves- who also have a more competitive team than the Angels- can afford the risk, given the potential reward for this very team friendly contract.

All in all, this is a great move for both sides.  In particular, Ronald Acuna Jr. deserves a tip of the cap- sure, $100 million is more than he’ll need to spend for the rest of his life.  But with all the whispers of how much MORE he could have made had he just waited longer, he showed that he values economic security over ego, not concerned at how much he’s making, relative to his peers.  Instead, he’ll let his numbers ON the field do the talking.

The Contrarian Take- Why Mike Trout’s Contract Is Ridiculous

Dr_Evil(After becoming Mike Trout’s agent,
Dr. Evil finally got the payout he’d been searching for.)

Seeing the overwhelming consensus on Mike Trout’s contract from the now-well entrenched stats community in Major League Baseball, one would think it would be silly to even mention the POSSIBILITY that the Angels made a big mistake today.  With a headline that seems to imply HE’S taking the contrary position, The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh writes, “Mike Trout Isn’t Worth $430 Million—He’s Worth Much More“.  A blogger for Nate Silver’s 538 website assures us that Trout’s contract is “a bargain”.  ESPN’s Sam Miller goes full Dr. Evil, telling us Mike Trout is worth one BILLION dollars.  And never lacking for confidence, Keith Law suggests anyone with lazy (aka “different than his”) opinions should smash their “phone with a strong hammer“.  (I wrote mine on a computer, so I guess I’m safe.)  Opinions like this can be seen all over the Internet, as the old school types that would shake their heads at such an absurd guaranteed contract for a single player have been virtually ridiculed out of existence.  Fortunately for them, however, I’m still here!

Before continuing on about just how ludicrous this contract will likely end up seeming in a few years- I’ve been wrong enough times in my life to add qualifiers- let me acknowledge several facts, so I don’t seem like a COMPLETE Internet troll.  For one thing, Mike Trout is almost unarguably the best player in baseball these days, and likely has been throughout nearly his entire career.  Relative to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper’s recent $300+ million deals, Trout’s $460 million is a bargain.  And, for what it’s worth, he does come across like a genuinely good, down-to-earth human being, not someone who’s been carefully crafted by some PR firm to seem like “just one of the guys”.

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You’d be smiling, too

“What it’s worth”, though, is a whole let less than $460 million.  For starters, Trout’s being praised for handling his extension with “class”.  Come on.  As a human being, he appears to be the real deal, but his quiet handling of this contract is hardly evidence of this- only someone with no restraint whatsoever would go blabbing to the media if they were negotiating the most expensive contract in North American team sports history!  But that’s neither here nor there.  The problem is that there is far more to consider, when making such a huge financial commitment, than the reasons given for why Mike Trout is worth all of this money (or more).  There’s no need to understand the fancy WAR stats to acknowledge the greatness of Mike Trout. (Full disclosure- I do not understand the fancy WAR stats.)  The problem with today’s advanced stat valuation is that it puts more worth into wins “above replacement” than it does into ACTUAL winning- something the Angels have not been particularly good at in recent years.  I’m not blaming Mike Trout for Anaheim’s lack of winning in recent years- far from it- but that’s exactly the point.  What good is paying so much money for one single player, without building a team around him? It’s not Mike Trout’s fault the Angels have been woefully absent during postseason baseball- well…outside of his one and only playoff appearance a few years back, which was pretty lousy.  But giving him all this money is not going to do much good, if the rest of the guys in his clubhouse get to visit their homes during the All Star break.

Even if the Angels do have success in the early part of Trout’s contract- unlikely as that may be- what are they going to do with all those years at the end of it?  (“Adjusting for inflation” with baseball contracts is a hot topic these days, but if I’m right about ONLY one thing, it’ll be this- that will be coming to a halt sooner, rather than later.  It HAS to!)  And as great as Mike Trout is, let’s not act like he, nor the “experts” praising him, are infallible.  In the former category, we have Clayton Kershaw as a recent example of the last baseball player who could do no wrong, being deemed worth any amount of money given to him.  While he has led the Dodgers to numerous postseason appearances, he has come up short repeatedly- as has been well documented- and is now injury-prone and on the wrong side of 30.  (The Dodgers may regret extending HIS contract this offseason, although that’s for another discussion.)  In the latter category, we have Jason Heyward, another young outfielder (supposedly) in his prime a few years back, who the stats community deemed a “steal” for the Cubs at the time.  Never had the WAR stats and the traditional stats been so at odds, but the sabermetric community, who by then had fully infiltrated baseball’s front offices, INSISTED that Heyward was more than worth it. As it would turn out, the most well known sports professional who turned out to be correct about Heyward was…Joe Buck!  Of course, the Cubs famously won the World Series in 2016, but to the extent Heyward was a key contributor, it was due far more to his “locker room talk” (no, not that locker room talk) during a rainout, which motivated the Cubs to victory. Irony of ironies- he DID have a unique skill, after all, but it was one that not even the stat guys could measure- the gift of gab.

So as of now, the Angels don’t appear much closer to postseason appearances, let alone success, than they were prior to Trout’s massive contract.  And without winning, the Angels’ marketing department will not be able to make up for his massive paydays- all 12 years of them- as MLB doesn’t have the kind of marketing ability that the NBA does for individual players. Not even close.  And, while baseball might not be “dying”- regardless of whatever Bud Selig was doing during his feckless time at the helm- it’s certainly not healthy enough to continue handing out these contracts, which are enabled by the cable bubble, that is enabled by the financial bubble, which is due to burst any day now.  But that’s also for another discussion.  (For those interested, click here.  Or here.  Or here.  Or)

Update- Not even a full three hours after this was posted do I have to issue a modification.  I shouldn’t have JUST labeled the sabermetric community as being so in favor of this deal.  Their onetime arch-nemesis, Bill Plaschke, has fully endorsed it, as well.  The unconditional love for Mike Trout is even MORE transcendent than I originally stated.  It’s truly incredible that no one of prominence will even acknowledge the POSSIBILITY that this deal is risky.